The letter below was submitted to the Bernardsville News on 12-06-15 and published in the print edition on 12-10-15. A small correction in the third paragraph was made here on 01-28-16.
EDITOR:
Terrorist acts and climate change have dominated the headlines this past week, and there have been arguments about which is the greater threat and requires more urgent action. This is a pointless dispute.
Terrorist acts threaten the lives of hundreds, perhaps thousands in this generation. Climate change threatens the lives of millions in future generations. These threats are related and we must address both.
Every four years the Pentagon engages in a Quadrennial Defense Review and issues a report. The last was issued in March of 2014. It contains this paragraph:
“Terrorists remain willing and able to threaten the United States, our citizens, and our interests – from conducting major and well-coordinated attacks to executing attacks that are smaller and less complex. … Foreign terrorist groups affiliated with al Qaida, as well as individual terrorist leaders, may seek to recruit or inspire Westerners to carry out attacks against our homeland with little or no warning. Homegrown violent extremists, for instance, have attacked DoD personnel and installations.”
Threats, like the tragic shootings in San Bernardino, are anticipated.
The report continues:
“Climate change poses another significant challenge for the United States and the world at large. As greenhouse gas emissions increase, sea levels are rising, average global temperatures are increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial economic growth in India, China, Brazil, and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and infrastructure. Climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and lead to sharp increases in food costs. The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.”
The concept of “threat multiplier” in the concluding sentence above is key, and the rise of the Islamic State shows how this can work.
For decades climate scientists have warned that global warming will produce more extreme weather, including severe droughts. Northeastern Syria suffered the worst drought in 40 years in 2006-10. A million farmers moved off the land into cities crowded with another million refugees from the Iraq war. The Assad government did little to help them. Unrest, encouraged by the Arab spring, developed into a civil war.
Leadership of what has become the Islamic State (aka ISIS, ISIL) grew from the remnants of al Qaida that had been crushed during the “surge” in the Iraq war in 2007-08. In the turmoil of civil war it established a new base in northeast Syria and eventually expanded back into Iraq.
The drought did not alone produce the Islamic State that we see today. But it was a threat multiplier and provided sparks that helped light the fire.
Another example in brief: There is reason to believe that war in the Darfur region of Sudan in the 2000s was triggered by declining water supplies, and that these were caused by climate change.
There are many reasons for moving aggressively to slow global warming and climate change. Civil unrest and terrorist activity are ones that have received too little attention.
I write this as the Paris climate talks are winding down. My hope is that some substantive agreements will emerge. However, I am also sure that these will not match the magnitude of the problem.
We must do more and attack vigorously both climate change and terrorist activity.
Bill Allen, 12-06-15,