The letter below was published in the Bernardsville News on September 30. For a look at a display of the relevant facts go to Federal Debt Ratio Chart.
EDITOR:
Most thoughtful people are worried about federal debt. Unfortunately, some of these are listening to professional fear-mongers and are looking in the wrong direction for solutions.
I will show that those who want to take constructive steps to improve the debt situation, and not just worry about it, should support Democrats for Congress in the coming election.
Before moving on I want to say that the Republicans with whom I served on the Bernards Township Committee were fiscally responsible. Nothing here should be interpreted as criticism of local officials.
Republican leaders in Washington are a different breed. Three decades of history show that they lack both the wisdom and the courage to do those things necessary to deal with federal debt.
Let’s look at the numbers. The federal debt at the end of 1976 was $0.65 trillion, and at the end of 2008 was $10.5 trillion. It increased by a factor of 16.
Gross domestic product (GDP) also increased, but only half as much. Because the economy grows and there is inflation, the best way to measure the debt problem is to divide it by GDP. Call this the “debt ratio.”
This ratio increased from 36% at the end of 1976 to 73% at the end of 2008. During these 32 years we had two Democratic and three Republican administrations. Outcomes follow.
- During four Carter years, the ratio declined 1.7% per year.
- During twelve Reagan and Bush years, the ratio rose 5.8% per year.
- During eight Clinton years, the ratio declined 1.6% per year.
- During eight Bush years, the ratio rose 3.1% per year.
Down, up, down, up. The pattern is clear. The federal debt ratio gets better during Democratic administrations, and it gets worse during Republican administrations.
For a chart, supporting data, and analysis go to Federal Debt Ratio Chart and Federal Debt Ratio Analysis.
Suppose there is a bad accident at a busy intersection. Emergency responders attend to the injured before they untangle the traffic. Their priorities are right.
Some people look at the large annual deficits today, become frightened, and focus on those deficits. This is a mistake. First priority now should be reviving the economy.
Actions in 2009 probably headed off a depression. But recovery is slow, perhaps because the magnitude of the problem was under-estimated and the actions taken were too timid. We will need a healthy economy to move effectively to reduce long-term debt.
The record since 1976 shows that Democrats deal better with federal debt than Republicans. It’s nonsense for Republicans to pretend today that they will do better. Nothing in the record supports their claim.
President Obama established a bipartisan deficit commission in February with the charge to make proposals to “balance the budget … and … improve the long-term fiscal outlook.” It will report its recommendations in December. The next Congress must review and discuss these carefully, and then work with the administration to draft and adopt appropriate legislation.
This won’t happen if Republicans control Congress. There will be gridlock. The country will have to wait at least two more years before seeing constructive action to deal with federal debt.
Most of us are very frustrated by the weak economy and the large debt, and some are very angry. But any voter, who wants more to solve problems than to vent anger, should vote for the Democratic candidates for Congress.
In our region these are Doug Herbert, Rush Holt, and Ed Potosnak.
Bill Allen September 30, 2010