“Although not every year had been as dramatic as this, the increasing frequency of draughts, severe flooding episodes, air pollution crises, heat-stress days, brownouts, and forest fires was already stretching the national treasury.”
Stephen Schneider wrote these words for the lead chapter “Shadows of the Climate Future” in his book Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? The book was published in 1989 when Schneider was a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. [Schneider 1989]
Extreme weather events this year suggest a strong affirmative answer to the question he raised 21 years ago in the sub-title of his book. Are we experiencing the effects of global warming now? A sampling of recent headlines and images follows.
Deadly Flooding Forces Evacuations in Nashville (NYT, May 4, 2010)
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Wildfires Ravaging Heat-Seared Russia (NYT, August 7, 2010)
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Monsoon Rains Continue in Flood-Ravaged Pakistan (NYT, August 10, 2010)
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Woman Missing After Raging Flood Waters Invade Iowa (Fox, August 11, 2010)
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Skeptics and professional deniers play down the significance of extreme weather events like those above. No responsible climate scientist will claim that a specific weather event was caused by global warming alone. But the frequency and magnitude of these events do suggest strongly that the climate is changing. Some non-scientists are taking notice.
Charlie Rose is the best interviewer on TV. His guests are doers and leaders who span the spectrum from politics, economics, and finance to art, medicine, sports, and nuclear proliferation. There is a lot they can say, and Rose’s polite and friendly manner gets them to say it.
Rose’s guest on August 9 was Richard Armitage, a graduate of the US Naval Academy who served six years in Vietnam. He then held several responsible positions in the Departments of Defense and State, last as Deputy Secretary to Secretary of State Colin Powell. Rose’s questions ranged widely over foreign policy and trade issues for 34 minutes. Armitage amswered all directly and demonstrated broad understanding of global affairs.
In wrapping up Rose asked: “What are the biggest challenges today?” Armitage answered that first “is to regain our confidence as a nation.” Second is “to get right our relationship with China.” [For whole interview click Armitage interview.]
Then Armitage concluded: “… we have to come to grips with the situation that exists in the world.” He ticked off four items in the news that morning: floods in China, floods in Pakistan, 100-year record heat in Russia, and floods in our midwest. “We’ve got to come to grips with climate. … I’m not smart enough to tell what’s changing. But something’s changing.”
Here’s a no-nonsense, practical guy with extensive experience in the real world. He’s not a scientist, but he senses that something is wrong. It is. The climate is changing and we can see it now. It’s not a pretty picture.
Bill Allen, August 30, 2010 <> OFFby2050